CANE POINTS: One-Third Refined Withdrawals Are From Imported Sugar

Almost one-third (32% or 297,457.87 metric tons) of total refined sugar withdrawals (934,410.62 mt) is from imported sugar stocks, based on the SRA Sugar Supply & Demand Situation Report for the period September 1, 2024 to August 24, 2025.

Refined sugar production registered at only 618,421.35 metric tons, lower by 10.55% from the same period in CY 2023-2024. Despite the low refined production, stocks was bolstered by the stock balance of more than 300,000 mt, consisting of 230,826.90 mt in the mill warehouses and 77,692 mt imported sugar.

Compared to the same period last crop year, refined stock balance for the current crop year is 62.50% higher, while imported stock balance is 81.03% lower. The figures show that refined sugar withdrawals made a bigger dent in imported refined stock balance than on locally produced refined stock balance in CY 2023-2024. Last crop year’s sugar prices bear witness to this prevalence of imports.

Crop Year 2024-2025 appears to be heading towards the same abundant supply of imported refined sugar. The crop year started with the entry of 222,466.12 mt refined sugar under Sugar Order No. 5 CY 2023-2024.

Sugar farmers recall bitterly that millgate sugar prices were down at the early months of milling, even though production was low. SRA said it was stumped why sugar prices buck the law of supply and demand, pointing out that production was 61% lower while supply is 35%-37% lower than the same period last crop year, insisting there was no oversupply.

SRA forgot there was an almost 78,000 mt refined sugar stock balance, about 136,000 mt newly arrived and about 110,000 mt due to come in under SO#5 CY 2023-24. In adamantly denying the existence of an oversupply at the early months of milling, SRA apparently overlooked that the term “supply” in the phrase “law of supply and demand” refers not only to current production but also to existing imported and incoming stocks.

In CY 2024-2025, sugar farmers felt the impact of imported sugar at the early months of milling. The coming Crop Year 2025-2026, which starts a week from now, appears to offer no respite for sugar farmers. More than 100,000 mt of imported refined sugar under Sugar Order No. 8 CY 2024-25 has already reached local warehouses, with the balance of more than 300,000 mt either already in or will soon arrive in the country.

For CY 2024-2025, total refined sugar supply stands at 1,262,136.37 mt, as of August 24, 2025, broken down as: 230,826.90 mt mill starting balance, 77,692 mt imported stock balance, 618,421.35 mt local production, 222,466.12 mt imported refined sugar under SO#5 CY2023-24 and 112,729.70 mt imported refined sugar SO#8 CY2024-25.

Total refined sugar withdrawals registered at 934,410.62 mt, consisting of 636,952.75 mt for domestic use and 297,457.87 mt from imports, broken down as: 44,575 mt (SO#6 CY2022-23), 18,525 mt (SO#7 CY 2022-23), 232,157.87 mt (SO#5 CY 2023-24) and 2,200 mt (SO#8 CY 2024-25).

Importations under Crop Year 2022-2023 (150,000 mt under SO#2, 440,000 mt under SO#6 and another 150,000 mt under SO#7) spilled over for two crop years (CY 2023-2024 and CY 2024-2025) and affected sugar prices in those two crop years.

Total refined sugar balance at refinery stands at 212,295.50 mt, with 115,429.95 mt balance of imported sugar, or total physical refined sugar stocks of 327,725.45 mt, as of August 24, 2025.

What volume of this refined sugar will be taken off the market in the five weeks before the start of milling? How many metric tons of refined sugar will be carried over as stock balance for Crop Year 2025-2026?

As milling starts a week from now, how will the staggered arrival (July 15 to November 30) of 424,000 mt imported refined sugar under Sugar Order No. 8 affect sugar prices?* (BB)